M. J. López-Herrero

En esta comunicación se considera un modelo estocástico de tipo SIVS (susceptible-infectado-vacunado-susceptible) en una población finita pero no aislada, afectada por una enfermedad no inmunizante. Se supone que parte de la población ha sido vacunada preventivamente con una vacuna imperfecta. Es decir, algunos individuos no son capaces de desarrollar anticuerpos con anterioridad a la exposición al patógeno y contraen la enfermedad pese a estar vacunados. Este hecho produce que durante el brote epidémico la cantidad de individuos protegidos disminuya, pudiendo incluso llegar a desaparecer.
En el estudio se considera un umbral en la cantidad de vacunados, w, y se establece una alarma cuando el número de individuos protegidos decrece por debajo de dicho umbral. El objetivo es analizar la variable Tw, tiempo desde el comienzo del brote hasta que se activa la alarma, y estudiar la influencia de los parámetros del modelo sobre Tw.

Keywords: Modelo estocástico de epidemias; umbral de seguridad


GT17 Stochastic Processes and their Applications IV
June 7, 2022  6:40 PM

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