Estimación de probabilidades de error humano mediante modelos de distorsión
P. R. Alonso Martín, I. Montes Gutiérrez, E. Miranda Menéndez
La fiabilidad humana tiene como objetivo la identificación, cuantificación y análisis de los factores humanos involucrados en los errores de funcionamiento de sistemas complejos. La cuantificación de la influencia de estos factores da lugar a las probabilidades de error humano, cuya estimación es un problema arduo. Dado que dichos factores están relacionados con elementos organizativos y tecnológicos, trabajos previos proponen el uso de modelos gráficos probabilísticos, como las redes Bayesianas o credales. Sin embargo, estos modelos requieren el cómputo de probabilidades condicionadas, lo que puede dar lugar a problemas cuando se condiciona a sucesos que, hasta la fecha, no han ocurrido. Además, las soluciones propuestas hasta ahora combinan aproximaciones frecuentistas y subjetivas, y no son en general robustas. En este trabajo proponemos una alternativa basada en modelos de distorsión, mostrando que el modelo es consistente con las estimaciones previas ganando a la vez en robustez.
Keywords: Fiabilidad humana, modelos gráficos probabilísticos, probabilidades imprecisas, modelos robustos.
Scheduled
Reliability and Quality Control I
June 8, 2022 12:40 PM
A23
Other papers in the same session
C. Pérez González, A. Fernández Rodríguez, V. Giner Bosch, A. Carrión García
M. Gómez Rodríguez, F. G. Badía Blasco, M. D. Berrade Ursúa
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6/8/22
Visit Alhambra
Tomorrow, Thursday, we will visit the Alhambra. 1. At 7:00 p.m., buses will start leaving from the door of the Hotel Granada Center (in front of the door of the Faculty of Sciences) 2. Upon arrival, groups with guides will be organized. 3. There will be groups in English language. These groups will wait at the destination until the arrival of all buses. 4. After the visit to the Alhambra we will walk to the Carmen de los Mártires to have a cocktail. 5. On the way back, we can go back by bus, which will leave from the same place where they left us at the Alhambra. 6. Although the way to the Alhambra by bus seems long, it really is close to the city. We invite you, whoever wishes, to go down for a pleasant walk. 7. Do not forget to take your Alhambra ticket and your identity card or passport. The document must be the same whose number matches the ticket number you have.
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5/31/22
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5/27/22
Gala Dinner
It opens the possibility that anyone who is registered for the conference, and wants non-registered companions to attend the gala dinner, can do so by paying the price of this dinner (80 euros VAT included). This payment must be made before June 1 (inclusive). To do this, contact with [email protected]
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5/23/22
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To access the Alhambra on the visit on Thursday 9, it is obligatory to present the identification document whose reference was sent to the organization (eurocongress)
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5/16/22
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