C. Pérez López, J. A. Martín Segura

Predecir es un intento de anticipar el futuro. Hay dos clases de predicciones. Las condicionales, en las que la evolución de una variable es causa de la evolución de otra y las incondicionales, en los que se incluyen solo valores actuales, pasados y futuros de la misma serie en estudio. En general, predecir la evolución del desempleo en un país es una tarea bastante complicada desde el punto de vista técnico, pues la estacionalidad de este tipo de series dificulta bastante la metodología. Hacerlo en una situación como durante la pandemia, es mucho más difícil, pues las variables son todas volátiles y no hay patrón de comportamiento similar. Nosotros hemos considerado que los modelos más fiables en una situación como la actual son los modelos predictivos incondicionales estocásticos basados en la metodología ARIMA con Análisis de la Intervención. Se predice el desempleo total y por sectores económicos.

Keywords: Desempleo, Series Temporales, Análisis de la Intervención, Covid19, Predicción

Scheduled

Time series
June 9, 2022  5:10 PM
A11


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