PREDICCIONES DE DESEMPLEO CON SERIES TEMPORALES. ANÁLISIS DE LS EFECTOS COVID19
C. Pérez López, J. A. Martín Segura
Predecir es un intento de anticipar el futuro. Hay dos clases de predicciones. Las condicionales, en las que la evolución de una variable es causa de la evolución de otra y las incondicionales, en los que se incluyen solo valores actuales, pasados y futuros de la misma serie en estudio. En general, predecir la evolución del desempleo en un país es una tarea bastante complicada desde el punto de vista técnico, pues la estacionalidad de este tipo de series dificulta bastante la metodología. Hacerlo en una situación como durante la pandemia, es mucho más difícil, pues las variables son todas volátiles y no hay patrón de comportamiento similar. Nosotros hemos considerado que los modelos más fiables en una situación como la actual son los modelos predictivos incondicionales estocásticos basados en la metodología ARIMA con Análisis de la Intervención. Se predice el desempleo total y por sectores económicos.
Keywords: Desempleo, Series Temporales, Análisis de la Intervención, Covid19, Predicción
Scheduled
Time series
June 9, 2022 5:10 PM
A11
Other papers in the same session
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I. Meca Sáez, J. J. López Espin, J. J. Rodríguez Sala, A. Rabasa Dolado
A. Esquivel López, N. Tejedor Flores, B. Fernández, O. Pérez
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6/8/22
Visit Alhambra
Tomorrow, Thursday, we will visit the Alhambra. 1. At 7:00 p.m., buses will start leaving from the door of the Hotel Granada Center (in front of the door of the Faculty of Sciences) 2. Upon arrival, groups with guides will be organized. 3. There will be groups in English language. These groups will wait at the destination until the arrival of all buses. 4. After the visit to the Alhambra we will walk to the Carmen de los Mártires to have a cocktail. 5. On the way back, we can go back by bus, which will leave from the same place where they left us at the Alhambra. 6. Although the way to the Alhambra by bus seems long, it really is close to the city. We invite you, whoever wishes, to go down for a pleasant walk. 7. Do not forget to take your Alhambra ticket and your identity card or passport. The document must be the same whose number matches the ticket number you have.
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5/27/22
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5/23/22
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5/16/22
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