A mechanistic spatio-temporal point process model to study COVID-19 propagation
Á. Briz Redón, A. Iftimi, J. Mateu, C. Romero García
Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at the case level is highly useful in this regard. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatio-temporal point process model to study a point pattern of COVID-19 cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months of the pandemic. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while previous works have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations.
Keywords: COVID-19, first-order intensity function, inhomogeneous point processes, mechanistic models, spatio-temporal models
Scheduled
Posters IV
June 10, 2022 10:10 AM
Faculty Hall
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À. Sebastià Bargues, J. L. Polo Sanz, R. Martín Martín
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I. Oña Casado, A. V. García Luengo
M. J. Rivas Lopez, J. M. Rodriguez Diaz, I. Mariñas del Collado
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